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Too Much Uncertainty

Theresa May’s Brexit white will be published soon. In a few weeks’ time, a document will be issued ahead of a key European Council meeting happening next month. In fact, too much uncertainty remains behind Brexit terms and conditions for most of the people who are obviously based in the UK and for British citizens living abroad. What will effectively happen around this time of the year next year after Brexit? If the consequences and the outcome of the referendum of the 23rd June 2016 took some time to emerge; No one can avoid the actual disruption and changes in growth and migration the UK is currently experiencing. Concerns that the UK will have to face no matter the Royal wedding.

What will be stipulated in that document? It will probably enlighten us in many ways: Customs, trade, regulatory divergence, financial services sector, security. It should materialise for the first time what the UK really expects from its future relationship with the EU. However, Theresa May’s main obstacle as we speak is a warring cabinet which must decide what needs to be put in the policy document, including agreeing on a plan for future customs relationship.

Mrs May’s Brexit cabinet committee has so far failed to reach an agreement on a customs plan, the Irish border for example is still a very sensitive issue but ministers did recognise that the time for discussion is almost over and that big decisions had to be taken by next month. It will feed into negotiations with Brussels on a political declaration on the future UK-EU relationship, which is scheduled to be agreed by October.

In the meantime, it looks like UK companies begin hiring fewer people as uncertainty over EU departure increases. London property prices fall as Brexit effect deepens. And fewer EU citizens are immigrating to the UK while more are emigrating. It does affect the growth and the economy of the country and adjustments will have to be made.

Brexit talks are still everywhere and so is uncertainty. Is Brexit definitely happening? The UK government and the main UK opposition party both say Brexit will happen. There are some groups campaigning for Brexit to be halted, but the focus among the UK's elected politicians has been on what relationship the UK has with the EU after Brexit, rather than whether Brexit will happen at all. Nothing is ever certain, but as things stand, Britain is definitely leaving the European Union and so are many citizens’ hopes who wished they could go back to a normal situation.

Please readTheresa May to publish Brexit white paper ahead of June summit via @financialtimes

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